Red, Blue, or Neither? The Changing Color of Florida Politics
For much of the 20th century, Florida leaned Democratic. Over time, it evolved into a swing state and now appears solidly Republican, with more than 40 percent of voters registered as such. Yet analysts suggest the state’s political identity might be shifting once again.
The Two-Party Command
The American two-party system—Democrats and Republicans—became deeply entrenched between 1824 and 1840. While alternatives like Independents and Libertarians exist, it's been more than half a century since a third-party candidate won a state in a U.S. presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center.
Florida’s Political Evolution
Florida’s last third-party victory occurred in 1848, when Whig candidate Zachary Taylor won the presidency. Since the Civil War, Democrats and Republicans have dominated the state’s politics. Between 1972 and 2020, Democrats held the majority of registered voters, but in 2021 Republicans surpassed them and have widened the gap since.
Shifting Loyalties
“I haven't changed that much, but I feel like the party has,” said Teri H., a lifelong Republican. “And, you know, the party kind of abandoned me.”
Teri, who requested anonymity due to workplace concerns, served in the military before attending the University of North Florida, where he chaired the College Republicans. His experience reflects a personal and generational rethinking of political identity in the Sunshine State.
Local Elections Tell a Subtler Story
Although state-level trends suggest deepening Republican dominance, some local races have recently shifted Democratic. This nuance hints that Florida may not be as predictably red as many assume.
Author’s summary: Florida’s political landscape, long marked by party swings, now reveals subtle shifts beneath its red surface as individual voters and local contests defy simple labels.